Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 13.690876 15.666334 17.795269 20.256296 23.018814 26.019943 29.522973
2025-03-16 10.524780 13.143334 16.186266 19.968095 24.525452 29.822597 36.427022
2025-03-23 9.090138 12.004417 15.556915 20.176942 25.993995 33.039889 42.180946
2025-03-30 8.169884 11.336767 15.363209 20.810920 27.934937 36.873819 48.868922
2025-04-06 7.162545 10.392402 14.656831 20.633013 28.713441 39.170082 53.619245
2025-04-13 6.048523 9.164179 13.430399 19.613851 28.244062 39.742070 56.072926
2025-04-20 5.591291 8.792443 13.314420 20.058744 29.727092 42.926366 62.107935
2025-04-27 5.181125 8.438529 13.176652 20.434667 31.101129 45.994681 68.098588
2025-05-04 4.694299 7.915368 12.737492 20.319657 31.734836 48.024672 72.695331
2025-05-11 4.227674 7.374125 12.218329 20.030070 32.067190 49.606142 76.685827
2025-05-18 3.892695 7.008523 11.932479 20.060992 32.857352 51.862463 81.727691
2025-05-25 3.641025 6.754352 11.796539 20.304462 33.967569 54.622405 87.612155
2025-06-01 3.363266 6.436970 11.543675 20.357976 34.806566 57.049074 93.169915
2025-06-08 3.063708 6.053042 11.149801 20.150405 35.211479 58.821497 97.802854
2025-06-15 2.865074 5.828612 11.002698 20.332409 36.238878 61.586605 104.065462
2025-06-22 2.760164 5.766279 11.128549 20.980885 38.062416 65.684500 112.593294
2025-06-29 2.536491 5.457184 10.791973 20.798210 38.467816 67.501027 117.522592
2025-07-06 2.215755 4.927175 10.012658 19.772845 37.361748 66.776105 118.264216
2025-07-13 2.123025 4.843076 10.049926 20.220570 38.835731 70.386364 126.281822
2025-07-20 2.028016 4.744992 10.051930 20.599354 40.200133 73.859452 134.193760
2025-07-27 1.881469 4.524453 9.800433 20.483463 40.662215 75.801798 139.579812
2025-08-03 1.728040 4.273794 9.469774 20.191796 40.780717 77.143523 143.974429
2025-08-10 1.621465 4.115788 9.312134 20.222936 41.492721 79.544085 150.280596